This study presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members. This new Carnegie model makes several critical innovations-notably, modeling unemployment in developing countries and separating agricultural labor markets from urban unskilled labor markets. The result is a thorough, detailed, and more accurate analysis of the impact of trade policies on both developing and developed countries. The report’s major findings are striking: any of the plausible trade scenarios will produce only modest gains for the world; agricultural trade is not a panacea for most poor countries; the poorest countries may actually lose from any agreement; and additional special measures will be needed to ensure that the least developed countries succeed.
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